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Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Gold below 3-week peak as dollar recovers; Trump policy in focus

Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,246.51 per ounce at 0353 GMT. On Wednesday, it touched its strongest since Feb. 28 at $1,251.26.

Gold prices on Thursday held below a 3-week peak hit in the prior session, as the dollar recovered from seven-week lows and markets looked to see if U.S. President Donald Trump could push through a healthcare bill.

Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,246.51 per ounce at 0353 GMT. On Wednesday, it touched its strongest since Feb. 28 at $1,251.26.

U.S. gold futures were down 0.3 percent at $1,246.5.

"There is a strong technical resistance at $1,250 and that seems to have been felt strongly at this juncture," OCBC analyst Barnabas Gan said.

Spot gold may retrace to a support at $1,237 per ounce, following its failure to break a resistance zone of $1,247-$1,254, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

However, Gan pointed to the impact of sustained political issues in Europe and the United States.

"This kind of uncertainity does lift gold prices," he said.

The immediate focus is on whether Trump can gather enough support in a vote as early as Thursday to pass a bill to roll back Obamacare, a first major test of his legislative ability and whether he can keep his promises to business.

Trump and House of Representatives leaders were pushing on Wednesday for votes for their plan, and said they were making progress in their efforts to win over conservative Republicans who have demanded changes to the legislation.

However, a rough ride for the healthcare plan could affect Trump's efforts to cut taxes and and boost infrastructure, and drive more investors into gold as a safe-haven investment if stock markets fall, analysts and traders said.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was up 0.1 percent at 99.782. It fell to a near seven-week low of 99.547 on Wednesday.

Spot silver rose 0.2 percent to $17.53.

Platinum was up 0.1 percent to $959.49 per ounce, while palladium edged up 0.1 percent to $787. The metal hit over one-month highs at $794.30 in the prior session.
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Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Nifty to open on flat to positive note backed of mixed global cues: ICICIdirect

Nifty is likely to open flat to positive on the back of mixed global cues. Buy Nifty in the range of 9140-9150 for targets of 9200-9210, stop loss: 9120, says ICICIdirect.

Nifty

The Nifty consolidated in a narrow range after a gap down opening. Apart from the energy space, heavyweights across sectors remained largely range bound. However, momentum continued in the midcap and small cap space as both indices gained almost 0.5 percent in trade. India VIX continued to remain low at 11.9 percent while the Nifty premium declined marginally to 29 points.

FIIs sold Rs 250 crore while DIIs sold Rs 52 crore in the cash segment. FIIs sold Rs 79 crore in index futures and bought Rs 616 crore in index options. In stock futures they sold Rs 40 crore.

The highest Put base remains at the 9000 strike with 57 lakh shares while the highest Call base has shifted downwards to the 9300 strike with 50 lakh shares. The 9200 and 9300 Call strikes saw addition of more than 5 lakh shares each while PUT OPTIONS saw closure of positions.

Nifty Bank

Nifty Bank continued its positive bias in the last session as well and ended near the highs of the day. We remain positive on the Nifty Bank till it trades above 21500. Participation of private sector heavyweights is likely to pull the index towards 22000 in coming sessions.

Nifty Future: The Nifty is likely to open flat to positive on the back of mixed global cues. Buy Nifty in the range of 9140-9150 for targets of 9200-9210, stop loss: 9120.

Nifty Bank Future: Nifty Bank continued its positive bias in the last session as well and ended near the highs of the day. We remain positive on the Nifty Bank till it trades above 21500. Participation of private sector heavyweights is likely to pull the index towards 22000 in coming sessions. Buy Nifty Bank in the range of 21600-21650, targets: 21750-21850, stop loss: 21500.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on moneycontrol.com are their own, and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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Thursday, April 13, 2017

Buy, Sell, Hold: Here are 7 stocks that analysts are watching today

Liquor, power and banks, among others, are on the radar of analysts on Thursday.

United Spirits

CLSA has recommended a sell call on the stock with a cut in target price to Rs 1,400 from Rs 1,600. The research firm highlighted the Chhattisgarh government’s announcement which showed an intention to have a phased liquor ban. It said that the state has banned liquor in villages with a population of more than 3,000 and that it will be sold in the state only through government outlets.

Goldman Sachs has a neutral rating on the stock with an increased target price of Rs 1,857. It believes that investor concerns around prohibition in additional states is likely to increase and the valuations of the stock reflect the risk of margin miss.

Meanwhile, Jefferies has maintained an underperform rating with a target of Rs1,812. It also sees anti-liquor rhetoric to increase in other states.

Adani Power

Citi has a sell call on the stock with a target of Rs 25. The Supreme Court’s order on compensatory tariff is a big blow for the firm and the research firm sees significant downside risks to the earnings per share (EPS) estimates. For now, there are no changes to EPS and target price as CERC’s relief calculation is still awaited.

Macquarie has maintained an underperform rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 20, implying a 46 percent downside. It foresees a likely breach in debt covenants and sees that firm’s net worth being completely wiped out. It also expects an annual loss run rate of Rs 1,200 crore and will require continued equity infusion.

Tata Power

Citi has downgraded the stock to sell from neutral on the back of SC’s ruling. The target price too has been cut to Rs 79.9 from Rs 83.3. The court’s order will significantly impact return ratios going forward, it said. It prefers NTPC and Power Grid in large caps and CESC in midcaps.

IIFL has downgraded the stock to reduce as fair value of UMPP and coal SPV is cut by Rs 15. The firm will have to utilize cash flows from other assets to service debt of UMPP. It has a target price of Rs 77.

Macquarie, meanwhile, has maintained a neutral rating on the stock and a target of Rs 77. The SC verdict has ruled out possibility of Mundra UMPP turning around. The impact appears limited when compared to Adani Power, it added. Furthermore, it believes the valuation at 1.6 times P/B is more than justified.

Reliance

CIMB sees FY18,FY19F earnings cuts for project delays and rupee appreciation for the firm. For FY18, it also saw lower refining and petchem EBITDA from USD 7.6 billion to USD 7 billion. The FY19 EBITDA estimate is unchanged at USD 8.1 billion, it added. Furthermore, the brokerage estimates standalone Q4 net profit of Rs 7,750 crore.

Likely earnings cuts in core petchem and refining business are being ignored, analysts at the firm said.

(Disclosure: Reliance Industries owns Network 18 that publishes Moneycontrol.com.)

HDFC Bank

Bank of America Merrill Lynch has reiterated its buy call on the stock with an increased target of Rs 1,800 from Rs 1,600. Rapid market share to drive in more than 20 percent EPS growth. Digital will drive in faster growth, cross selling and cost benefits, the research firm added. The stock remains one of its top picks.

Reliance Communications

Deutsche Bank has downgraded the stock to sell with a reduced target price of Rs 30 from Rs 57. The firm could lose around 100-150 basis points (bps) revenue share over the next two years and a merger with Jio in the medium-term cannot be ruled out. It has reduced revenue estimates for FY18/19 By 14% & 21% and EBITDA estimates by 17% & 21%. It also forecasts a loss for FY18/19 of Rs 1,600 crore and Rs 2,250 crore, respectively.

(Disclosure: Reliance Jio is a part of Reliance Industries that  owns Network 18 Media & moneycontrol.com)

Adani Ports

Macquarie has downgraded the stock to neutral rating with a target price of Rs 347. There are possible headwinds to business related to iron ore volumes, it said and recommends waiting on sidelines and evaluate next steps by promoters.
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Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Sensex, Nifty on a roll; 5 ways to de-risk your portfolio

Portfolio re-balancing should normally be an ongoing process, a function on one’s target portfolio and asset allocation.

The BSE Sensex recently touched 30,000 after a gap of two years and is hovering close that level ever since. Nifty has recently touched record highs. Amid high stock valuations, there are talks that the stock indices could move to fresh highs in coming months on the back of healthy economic growth and strong investment inflows into equities.

The risks in equities are high at present levels and investors are uncertain about their portfolio mix. Should one take fresh positions in equities or sell partly and rebalance by raising exposure to debt? Should one actively rebalance their portfolio given the market environment?
Personal finance and investment experts believe that investors should avoid any knee-jerk reaction to market levels.

?Portfolio re-balancing should normally be an ongoing process, a function on one?s target portfolio and asset allocation. The target portfolio, of course, depends on individual characteristics like age, risk-appetite, liabilities, social and family situation etc. It is not really supposed to be a function of absolute market levels,? Mihir Vora, Director and Chief Investment Officer, Max Life Insurance told Moneycontrol.

Vora, however, has a word of caution for equity investors despite being optimistic about the long-term picture. ?With equity markets having moved significantly in the past year (up about 18 percent) without a commensurate increase in earnings, valuations do look a bit on the expensive side. Within equities, the mid-and-small cap indices have moved even more. However, the long-term expected returns from equities will continue to remain attractive,? Vora said.

S Sridharan, Head, Financial Planning, Wealth Ladder Investment Advisors, feels that markets may move higher from present levels. ?Price-to-earnings level is already on the higher side. The P/E of Sensex is close to 23 which is not a comfort level. However, domestic inflows coupled with FII inflows and government?s reform measures may push the market upwards from current levels,? Sridharan said.

Keeping the present situation in mind, Vora and Sridharan have the following 5 pieces of advice for investors who are uncertain about their investment portfolio moves:

?    Stick to your target asset allocation and do not chase momentum. ?    Avoid concentrating on a few stocks, especially illiquid stocks. ?    Avoid leveraging your portfolio and avoid over-trading. ?    Do not invest lump-sum in equity at this juncture. Staggered investments though Systematic Investment Pan (SIP) will help in cost-averaging. ?    Avoid small & microcap funds, as valuations are at an all-time high. If you are still interesting in the space. consider investing through SIPs.
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